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On the formation of travel demand models and economic evaluation measures of user benefit


  • H C W L Williams


This paper examines a variety of issues within the context of two main themes: the formation of travel demand and economic evaluation measures which are mutually consistent within a theory of rational choice; and a consideration of the structure of models which are representations of the trip decision process over several dimensions: location, mode, and route. Random utility theory is invoked to explore both the role and properties of composite costs or index prices in the 'recursive' approach to the structuring of travel choice models, and their significance in the economic evaluation problem. It is shown that the specification of these costs must be made very precisely, with respect to the demand model form chosen, in order to retain the underlying assumption that the traveller is an optimal decisionmaker. It is argued that the structure of 'simultaneous' models currently in use is inconsistent with the form of utility function assumed to generate these models. Furthermore, it is shown that the 'simultaneous' and 'recursive' forms are special cases of a more general choice model structure which takes specific account of correlation or 'commonality' of trip attributes. A number of applications are discussed in which consistent demand models and perceived user benefit measures are constructed. These include the formation of strategic transport planning models and of models for mixed-mode, multimode, and multiroute systems. The formalism allows definitive answers to be given to a number of problems of current interest in transportation planning, which have been incorrectly or incompletely treated.

Suggested Citation

  • H C W L Williams, 1977. "On the formation of travel demand models and economic evaluation measures of user benefit," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 9(3), pages 285-344, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:9:y:1977:i:3:p:285-344

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephane Hess, 2005. "Analysing air-travel choice behaviour in the Greater London area," ERSA conference papers ersa05p736, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Stephane Hess & John W. Polak, 2004. "An analysis of parking behaviour using discrete choice models calibrated on SP datasets," ERSA conference papers ersa04p60, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Chandra Balijepalli & Simon Shepherd, 2016. "Cordon tolls and competition between cities with symmetric and asymmetric interactions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(5), pages 797-821, September.
    4. Michael Scheidler & Reinhard Hujer & Joachim Grammig, 2005. "Discrete choice modelling in airline network management," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 467-486.
    5. Francisco Javier Amador & Rosa Marina González & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2004. "Preference heterogeneity and willingness to pay for travel time," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2004-12, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
    6. Laura Nurski & Frank Verboven, 2016. "Exclusive Dealing as a Barrier to Entry? Evidence from Automobiles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 1156-1188.
    7. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:479-:d:131401 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Roger Vickerman & Klaus Spiekermann & Michael Wegener, 1999. "Accessibility and Economic Development in Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-15.
    9. Rodríguez Hernández, J.E. & Barrios García, J.A., 2003. "Un modelo logit mixto de tenencia de vivienda en Canarias," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 21, pages 173-191, Abril.
    10. Juan Carlos García-Palomares & Javier Gutiérrez & Juan Carlos Martín & Concepción Román, 2013. "Modal accessibility disparity to terminals and its effect on the competitiveness of HST versus air transport," Chapters,in: Smart Transport Networks, chapter 7, pages 126-149 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Kingsley E. Haynes & Stewart Fotheringham, 1990. "The Impact of Space on the Application Of Discrete Choice Models," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 39-49, Spring.
    12. Francisco Javier Amador Morera & Rosa Marina González Marrero, 2005. "Value of Travel Time Savings for University Students and Preference Heterogeneity," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 174(3), pages 25-41, September.
    13. Dalen, Dag Morten & Sorisio, Enrico & Strøm, Steinar, 2009. "Choosing among Competing Blockbusters: Does the Identity of the Third-party Payer Matter for Prescribing Doctors?," Memorandum 10/2009, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    14. Gerard De Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Toon Van der Hoorn, 2005. "The logsum as an evaluation measure - review of the literature and new results," ERSA conference papers ersa05p158, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Michael Iacono & David Levinson & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2007. "Models of Transportation and Land Use Change: A Guide to the Territory," Working Papers 200805, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    16. Paul Koster & Erik T. Verhoef & Simon Shepherd & David Watling, 2014. "Probabilistic Choice and Congestion Pricing with Heterogeneous Travellers and Price-Sensitive Demand," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-078/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Nov 2014.
    17. Jan Ondrich, 2005. "Cox-McFadden Partial and Marginal Likelihoods for the Proportional Hazard Model with Random Effects," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 68, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    18. Andrew Daly & Stephane Hess & Geoff Hyman & John Polak & Charlene Rohr, 2005. "Modelling departure time and mode choice," ERSA conference papers ersa05p688, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Jan Ondrich, 2005. "Cox-McFadden Partial and Marginal Likelihoods for the Proportional Hazard Model with Random Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 520, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Richard Batley, 2008. "On Ordinal Utility, Cardinal Utility and Random Utility," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 37-63, February.
    21. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:1265-:d:142178 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:kap:theord:v:84:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9651-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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