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A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls

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  • Chris Leishman
  • Glen Bramley

Abstract

There have been relatively few attempts to construct local housing market models in the United Kingdom—particularly models with an explicit treatment of land supply. In this paper we report the results of a pilot study designed to test the practicability of estimating a system of equations which describe housing market dynamics at the local level. Former district council areas in Central Scotland are used as a proxy for local housing markets within a region, thereby providing a panel dataset. A simple supply – demand system with separate equations for inward and outward household migration is modelled using two-stage least squares. The empirical results are varied, with some equations and coefficients performing more closely in line with prior expectations than others. House price levels are explained largely with reference to household income, socioeconomic status, and past levels of house price growth. Higher price levels and higher deprivation diminish inward migration. There are also suggestions in the results that higher rates of new-build supply partly cause higher inward migration. The rate of outward migration increases with ethnicity and wealth and decreases with deprivation. The empirical performance of the new-build supply equation is poor although the results do yield some interesting insights. House building output generally decreases as the proportion of ‘small’ sites in the land supply increases. There is also evidence that house building output decreases as land supply in neighbouring areas increases. We conclude the paper by outlining further directions for modelling prices, supply, and migration at local housing market level. In particular, the case is made for further work involving the collection of wider and longer panel datasets and for extending the pilot study work beyond Scotland.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Leishman & Glen Bramley, 2005. "A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 37(9), pages 1637-1649, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:37:y:2005:i:9:p:1637-1649
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    2. Farooq, Bilal & Miller, Eric J., 2012. "Towards integrated land use and transportation: A dynamic disequilibrium based microsimulation framework for built space markets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1030-1053.
    3. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices: an economic geography approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1673-1689, May.
    4. B. Biagi & MG. Brandano & D. Lambiri, 2012. "Does tourism affect house prices? Some evidence from Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 201227, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    5. Min Jiang & Liangjie Xin & Xiubin Li & Minghong Tan, 2016. "Spatiotemporal Variation of China’s State-Owned Construction Land Supply from 2003 to 2014," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Ali Turel, 2012. "High housing production under less regulated market conditions in Turkey," ERES eres2012_210, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    7. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, "undated". "Explaining Spatial Variation in Housing Prices: An Economic Geography Approach," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600023, EcoMod.
    8. Bianca Biagi & Maria G. Brandano & Dionysia Lambiri, 2015. "Does Tourism Affect House Prices? Evidence from Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 501-528, September.
    9. repec:esr:resser:rs70 is not listed on IDEAS

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