IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling and Forecasting Demand for Nepali Tourism

  • Shoora B. Paudyal Ph. D.

    ()

    (Economics Department, Tribhuvan University)

Registered author(s):

    In this paper international demand for Nepali tourism from the selected major markets has been estimated using time series data of number of tourist arrivals, per capita income, own price and prices of related goods. Autoregressive distributive lagged (ARDL) models are applied as a tool of estimation. This study confirms that tourism demand for Nepal is the composite function of disposable income, own price, cross price, lags of these variables, word of mouth of the visitors and qualitative factors captured by dummies. The most important policy implication can be derived from the words of mouth of the visitors. This manifests that only the good impression on the visitors can generates better words of mounth in favour of destination which underscores the up-gradation of the tourist products for the better image of the destination. The best performed models are used for forecasting the growth rates of tourist arrivals from the eight major markets for 2010 to 2020. The forecasted growth rates of tourist arrivals from major eight market are found very close to the actual average annual growth rates for 2006 to 2010.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/pdffiles/vol26-1_art4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department in its journal NRB Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages: 58-89

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:58-89
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:58-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Bishnu Prasad Gautam)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.