Modelling and Forecasting Demand for Nepali Tourism
In this paper international demand for Nepali tourism from the selected major markets has been estimated using time series data of number of tourist arrivals, per capita income, own price and prices of related goods. Autoregressive distributive lagged (ARDL) models are applied as a tool of estimation. This study confirms that tourism demand for Nepal is the composite function of disposable income, own price, cross price, lags of these variables, word of mouth of the visitors and qualitative factors captured by dummies. The most important policy implication can be derived from the words of mouth of the visitors. This manifests that only the good impression on the visitors can generates better words of mounth in favour of destination which underscores the up-gradation of the tourist products for the better image of the destination. The best performed models are used for forecasting the growth rates of tourist arrivals from the eight major markets for 2010 to 2020. The forecasted growth rates of tourist arrivals from major eight market are found very close to the actual average annual growth rates for 2006 to 2010.
Volume (Year): 26 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/Email: |
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:58-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Bishnu Prasad Gautam)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.