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Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Nepal

  • Ram Sharan Kharel Ph.D.

    ()

    (Nepal Rastra Bank)

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    This paper develops a macroeconomic forecasting model focusing on fiscal policy and economic growth in Nepal. The structure of the model, which comprises a total of 14 equations, allows alternative policy options for maintaining fiscal stability and promoting economic growth as well as switching deficit financing between domestic and foreign loans. We use annual data from 1992/93 to 2009/10 to estimate the model and provide out-sample forecasts for 2010/11 to 2012/13, consistent with the current Three Year Plan period, in order to evaluate the plan performance. The empirical evidence suggests that fiscal policy, particularly governments' capital expenditure affects economic growth positively and also crowds-in private investment. However, there exists a trade-off between fiscal stability and high level of economic growth as the policy goal of achieving both objectives seems to be unattainable. Finally, the out-sample forecast suggests that it is unlikely to attain the targeted economic growth in the Three Year Plan period from the planned fiscal outlay even if it is realized.

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    File URL: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/pdffiles/vol24-1_art1.pdf
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    Article provided by Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department in its journal NRB Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages: 1-15

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    Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:24:y:2012:i:1:p:1-15
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/
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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
    2. Theodore Pelagidis & Evangelia Desli, 2004. "Deficits, growth, and the current slowdown: what role for fiscal policy?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 461-469, April.
    3. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    4. Ram Sharan Kharel PhD & Tap Prasad Koirala PhD, 2011. "Spatial Price Integration in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 21-36, April.
    5. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    6. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2004. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-Run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 883-910, October.
    7. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
    8. Peretto, Pietro F, 2003. " Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth in R&D-Based Models with Endogenous Market Structure," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 325-47, September.
    9. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
    10. Min Bahadur Shrestha, Ph.D., 2006. "Testing for Unit Roots in Nepalese Macroeconomic Data," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 18, pages 1-19, April.
    11. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-22, May.
    13. Mehrotra, Aaron N. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2005. "Socio-economic development and fiscal policy: lessons from the cohesion countries for the new member states," Working Paper Series 0467, European Central Bank.
    14. Khan, Mohsin S & Kumar, Manmohan S, 1997. "Public and Private Investment and the Growth Process in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 69-88, February.
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