IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020


  • S. M. Drobyshevsky
  • G. I. Idrisov
  • A. S. Kaukin
  • P. N. Pavlov
  • S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev.


The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.

Suggested Citation

  • S. M. Drobyshevsky & G. I. Idrisov & A. S. Kaukin & P. N. Pavlov & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2018. "Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
  • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:2018-09-1

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item


    economic growth; total factor productivity; macroeconomic scenarios; structural unemployment; terms of trade; state of market.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:2018-09-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sergei Parinov). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.