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Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020

Author

Listed:
  • S. M. Drobyshevsky
  • G. I. Idrisov
  • A. S. Kaukin
  • P. N. Pavlov
  • S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev.

Abstract

The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.

Suggested Citation

  • S. M. Drobyshevsky & G. I. Idrisov & A. S. Kaukin & P. N. Pavlov & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2018. "Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
  • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:2018-09-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; total factor productivity; macroeconomic scenarios; structural unemployment; terms of trade; state of market.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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