Russian Federation — Concluding Statement for the 2012 Article IV Consultation Mission (Moscow, June 13, 2012)
The Russian economy has recovered from the 2008—2009 crisis and is now running close to its potential. While demand pressures risk overheating the economy in the short run, medium-term growth prospects are constrained. To address these challenges Russia should continue to strengthen the conduct of macroeconomic policy and tackle long-standing structural bottlenecks. An ambitious fiscal adjustment is needed to ensure that economic growth is balanced, fiscal policy is not pro-cyclical, and oil wealth is spent equitably across generations. Meanwhile, monetary policy should be tightened to keep underlying inflation on a declining path. The increased exchange rate flexibility has been a major policy advancement and is helping the Russian economy absorb external shocks, including spillovers from the international financial turbulence. A stronger supervisory framework is key to promote sound financial intermediation. Critically, the new government should deliver promptly on long-awaited structural reforms, including measures to improve the investment climate.
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