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Anticipating climate impacts on nutrition through climate–crop nutrient modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Bianca Carducci

    (Columbia University)

  • Jose Rafael Guarin

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Autonomic Integra LLC)

  • Kevin Karl

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Lewis Ziska

    (Columbia University)

  • Meijian Yang

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Jessica Fanzo

    (Columbia University)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Alex C. Ruane

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Gerrit Hoogenboom

    (University of Florida)

  • Mario Herrero

    (Cornell University)

  • Erik Mencos Contreras

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Natalie Kozlowski

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Cynthia Rosenzweig

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Abstract

Micronutrient deficiencies from poor dietary diversity remain a global health challenge. This issue is exacerbated by climate change-driven extreme weather events that impact crop quantity and quality. While process-based crop models effectively simulate plant nutrient (N, P, K) dynamics for productivity projections, they lack the ability to assess crop nutritional content. This Perspective proposes a framework for integrating nutrient dynamics into crop models for informing nutrition security strategies amid climate change. We delineate key biological pathways influencing nutrient uptake, translocation and density in response to elevated CO2, temperature and low precipitation. We highlight the scarcity of comprehensive datasets, underscoring the need for urgent, collaborative research to amass foundational data and models to ensure nutritional integrity in an uncertain climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianca Carducci & Jose Rafael Guarin & Kevin Karl & Lewis Ziska & Meijian Yang & Jessica Fanzo & Jonas Jägermeyr & Alex C. Ruane & Gerrit Hoogenboom & Mario Herrero & Erik Mencos Contreras & Natalie K, 2025. "Anticipating climate impacts on nutrition through climate–crop nutrient modelling," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(11), pages 1165-1172, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02470-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02470-3
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