IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Toward a Macroforecast for 1999

Listed author(s):
  • M. Deliagin
Registered author(s):

    The state's repudiation of its obligations on August 17,1998, along with subsequent events (the three-week absence of leaders of the government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of Russia [CBR], and the formation of their new leadership over the course of the month), led to a radical worsening of the economic crisis.>sup>1>/sup> It reached its nadir in September, in the first half of which the country's banking system was virtually entirely paralyzed. As a result, settlements among enterprises ceased and payments to the budget were reduced to a minimum. The decline in the GDP in September and October 1998 was 9.9 percent compared to the analogous period of the preceding year, and will not be less than 5 percent for the year as a whole. The corresponding figures for the drop in industrial production are 14.5 percent, 11.1 percent, and 8.0 percent, and in investments 14.3 percent, 11.5 percent, and 7.0 percent. The sole area where the situation actually improved in October was agriculture; the decline slowed from 15.0 percent to 6.7 percent, and the expected annual decline was at the 8 percent level. But the decline in railroad freight traffic in October, on the contrary, accelerated from 15.2 percent to 16.3 percent, and a yearly drop of about 10 percent is being predicted.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Problems of Economic Transition.

    Volume (Year): 42 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 47-59

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:mes:prectr:v:42:y:1999:i:3:p:47-59
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:prectr:v:42:y:1999:i:3:p:47-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.