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Prospectiva de la electricidad en España/Foresight for the electricity sector in Spain

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    (Departamento Economía Aplicada, UNIVERSIDAD REY JUAN CARLOS, ESPAÑA.)

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    En los últimos años el sector de la electricidad se ha visto sometido a intensos cambios de naturaleza tecnológica, social, ambiental, económica y política. En este artículo se plantea un ejercicio de prospectiva en el que dichos condicionantes son analizados y en función de los mismos se elabora un escenario base de demanda y de oferta de generación de electricidad. Desde la perspectiva de la demanda, las enormes ventajas que para el sistema supone el ahorro en el consumo de electricidad, hace necesario abordar mejoras de eficiencia, modernizar las redes de distribución (smart-grids), llevar a cabo la progresiva eliminación de las tarifas reguladas y un desarrollo institucional que garantice una regulación de calidad y una elevada competencia entre los agentes. Por el lado de la oferta, es necesario insistir en la importancia de la planificación a largo plazo en la que los factores claves serán, la promoción masiva de renovables y la gestión de una creciente potencia instalada con una utilización muy intermitente. In recent years the electricity sector has undergone a deep transformation due to social, environmental, economical, political and technological drivers. The present paper set out a baseline scenario for electricity demand and supply in Spain, taking into account such factors. From the demand point of view, the enormous advantages derived from savings in electricity consumption suggest development of smart-grid, the progressive suspension of regulated tariff, and further development of institutional framework with the objective of improving regulation quality and promote competition. On the supply side, the efforts should focus on a long term planning, where main keys should be promotion of renewable energy, and the management of an increasing amount of plants with very intermittent usage.

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    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
    Issue (Month): (Agosto)
    Pages: 415-432

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:29_2_1
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    Beatriz Rodríguez Prado. Facultad de CC.EE. y EE. Avda. Valle del Esgueva. Valladolid 47011 SPAIN

    Phone: (34) 983 423320
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    1. Juan Delgado & Hans W. Friederiszick & Lars-Hendrik Röller, . "Energy: choices for Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 14, July.
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