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Heterogeneous growth cycles/Ciclos de crecimiento heterogéneo

  • HERNÁNDEZ-VELEROS, ZEUS SALVADOR

    ()

    (Cuerpo Académico de Economía, Instituto de Ciencias Económico Administrativas. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, México.)

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    This paper focuses on the Dirichlet and the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions to analyze one definition of the cycle based on three economic performance regimens: augmentation, stagnation and diminution. We use data from 142 economies grouped in seven clusters during the second half of the last century, a period which has witnessed various structural changes. Furthermore, this paper advances to investigate what the probabilities are of reaching significant positive growth rates – the frequency of the augmentation regimen – which prevailed during the decade from 1950 to 1960, using Bayesian statistics. Este artículo se enfoca en las distribuciones Dirichlet y Dirichlet-multinomial para analizar una definición de ciclo basada en tres regímenes de desempeño económico: incremento, estancamiento y decrecimiento. Empleamos datos del producto interno bruto per cápita 142 economías agrupadas en siete clusters, correspondientes al periodo 1950-2000, el cual ha sido testigo de diferentes cambios estructurales. Asimismo, se investiga cuál es la probabilidad de que se presenten las frecuencias de las tasas de crecimiento positivas significativas –frecuencias del régimen de incremento- observadas en los años cincuenta, gracias al uso de estadística bayesiana.

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    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
    Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
    Pages: 625-650

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:28_3_7
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    1. Huang, Ho-Chuan, 2005. "Diverging evidence of convergence hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 233-255, June.
    2. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    7. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Felipe Larraín & Se Kyu Choi-Ha, 2003. "Recesiones, Apertura y Régimen Cambiario," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 668-678.
    9. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    12. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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