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El desarrollo humano: perfiles y perspectivas futuras /Profiles and Prospects of the Human Development



    (Departamento de Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Lleida. Campus Cappont, Av. Jaume II, 73 25001 Lleida Teléfono 973 70 33 05 Fax 973 70 33 00)



    (Departamento de Economía Aplicada. Facultad de Derecho y Economía. Universidad de Lleida.)

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    El PNUD calcula todos los años el Índice de Desarrollo Humano (IDH). El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los antecedentes y las perspectivas futuras del desarrollo humano a partir de los datos de este índice durante el periodo 1970-2000. Esto es, comprobar, a partir de los datos pasados, si las diferencias entre el IDH de los países del mundo están aumentando y valorar la tendencia del IDH esperada para los próximos años. En definitiva, se trata de buscar respuesta a la siguiente pregunta ¿cómo se modificarán los niveles de desarrollo humano en el futuro?. Para ello, se utiliza la metodología estadística del análisis dinámico de distribución mediante las cadenas de Markov. The aim of this study is to analyse the previous records and the future evolution of the human development from the IDH between 1970-2000. Every year the IDH is calculated by the PNUD. The outcome of the data derived from the analysis of the records, comparing and checking the growth in the IDH among the countries in the world; as well as assessing the forecast of the IDH trends. In short, the aim is to find the answer to the following question: How will the human development levels be modified in the future?. To achieve so, the statistic methodology of Markov Chains is applied.

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    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
    Issue (Month): (Agosto)
    Pages: 545-562

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:27_2_11
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    1. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
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    7. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    8. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    9. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
    10. LE GALLO, Julie, 2001. "Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions: A Markov chains approach," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 2001-06, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
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