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El impacto de la Ley de la dependencia en las proyecciones del gasto sanitario y de los cuidados de larga duración/The effects of population ageing and Law of Dependecy on social expenditure in Spain

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    (Departamento de Teoría Económica. Universidad Ramon Llull. Torrent de les Flors, 68; 08024 Barcelona. Tfno:670 280 747)

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    Las perspectivas del cambio demográfico en el horizonte 2050 muestran un envejecimiento importante de la población en la UE-25. El ratio de dependencia se doblará, del 24,5% al 51,4%. Ello afectará negativamente a las balanzas fiscales de los países. La UE recomienda a los Gobiernos cambios estructurales para intentar frenar el crecimiento del gasto social pero esto no siempre será posible en países como España en donde, todavía, no se ha alcanzado la universalidad de algunos servicios sociales. La Ley de la dependencia permitirá mejorar el sistema de protección social pero supondrá un incremento del gasto social importante, entre el 0,7 y 1% del PIB. La suma de los impactos de la Ley y del envejecimiento de la población hará que el gasto en cuidados de larga duración incremente alrededor de dos puntos porcentuales del PIB, cifra muy superior a la prevista en las proyecciones de la UE. The perspectives of demographic change for the year 2050 reveal a substantial ageing of the population, which will imply a doubling in the ratio of dependency, from 24.5% to 51.4%, in the EU-25. This will negatively affect the fiscal balance of those countries. The EU recommends that Governments implement changes in an effort to limit the social expenditure involved, but this is not always possible in countries such as Spain, in which the universality of certain social services has not yet been attained. The Law of Dependency will improve the social-protection system, but will also imply an important increase in social expenditure of between 0.7 and 1% of GDP. The combined effects of the Law and of population ageing will lead expenditure on long-term care to increase around two GDP percentage points, a figure considerably higher than that initially foreseen by the EU.

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    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2007)
    Issue (Month): (Abril)
    Pages: 379-406

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:25_2_2
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    1. Claire Gudex & Gaetan Lafortune, 2000. "An Inventory of Health and Disability-Related Surveys in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 44, OECD Publishing.
    2. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Moshe Buchinsky & Hiu Man Chan & Sofia Cheidvasser & John Rust, 2004. "How large is the bias in self-reported disability?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 649-670.
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