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Generación de una proyección de la población española para el período 1996-2025, mediante un modelo de simulación estocástica

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  • CASAS SÁNCHEZ, J.M.

    () (Departamento de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I. Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Alcalá de Henares.)

  • GUTIÉRREZ DE MESA, J.L.

    () (Departamento de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I. Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Alcalá de Henares.)

  • NÚÑEZ VELÁZQUEZ, J.J.

    () (Departamento de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I. Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Alcalá de Henares.)

Abstract

Se trata de elaborar una proyección de la población española, mediante un modelo de simulación estocástica iterativo, a través de la selección de intervalos de crecimiento quinquenales para la esperanza de vida al nacer de las mujeres, así como para el Índice Sintético de Fecundidad (ISF) y el número de inmigrantes. The aim is the construction of a projection of the Spanish population, through a stochastic iterative simulation model, with the selection of growth intervals five-year for the life hope upon born of the women, as well as for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the number of immigrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Casas Sánchez, J.M. & Gutiérrez De Mesa, J.L. & Núñez Velázquez, J.J., 2003. "Generación de una proyección de la población española para el período 1996-2025, mediante un modelo de simulación estocástica," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 21, pages 73-90, Abril.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:21_1_6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; Stochastic Simulation; Populations forecasts.;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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