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Las fluctuaciones cíclicas del turismo en Andalucía1


  • OTERO, J.M.

    (Universidad de Málaga)



En este artículo se pretende caracterizar y analizar las fluctuaciones cíclicas del sector turístico andaluz durante el período 1977-1998 con el fin de extraer algunas conclusiones que sirvan de punto de partida para tratar de anticipar si, después de cinco años consecutivos de crecimiento del sector, nos encontramos al final de una fase de expansión. Entre las conclusiones del estudio cabe destacar las siguientes: (i) el turismo en Andalucía muestra un comportamiento procíclico, presentando un retardo temporal de dos a tres trimestres con respecto a los ciclos de la economía española; (ii) las recesiones del sector turístico son más profundas que las que afectan al PIB español; (iii) el sector turístico andaluz es muy sensible a los acontecimientos socioeconómicos internacionales y (iv) aunque se prevé que durante 1999 el sector seguirá creciendo a tasas similares a las que vienen registrando recientemente. This paper intends to analyse and characterise Andalusian tourism sector cyclical fluctuations for 1977-1998 period, with the purpose to reach some conclusions allowing to anticipate if, after five consecutive years of growth, we are in a turning point. Some relevant conclusions of this research, are the following: (i) Tourism in Andalusia follows the Spanish economy cycles with a temporal lag of two to three terms; (ii) Tourism sector recessions are deeper than those affecting Spanish GDP; (iii) Andalusian tourism sector is very sensitive to international socio economic events; and (iv) Forecasts indicate that during 1999 tourism sector will continue to grow, at similar rates to those recently showed.

Suggested Citation

  • Otero, J.M. & Equipo Saeta, 1999. "Las fluctuaciones cíclicas del turismo en Andalucía1," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 13, pages 129-142, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:13_3_7

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-218, May.
    2. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    3. Dolado, Juan José & López-Salido, J. David & Vega, Juan Luis, 1997. "Spanish unemployment and inflation persistence : ares there phillips trade-offs?," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6041, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Charles R. Bean, 1994. "The role of demand management policies in reducing unemployment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 99-167.
    5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    6. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    7. Francisco Gómez García & Carlos Usabiaga Ibáñez, "undated". "Las estimaciones de la NAIRU: Una valoración de conjunto," Studies on the Spanish Economy 31, FEDEA.
    8. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 1989. "The Insider-Outsider Theory of Employment and Unemployment," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262074x, July.
    10. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, July.
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    More about this item


    Turismo; ciclos; Andalucía;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism


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