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La relación inflación-desempleo en la economía española (1964-98): Una interpretación

  • GÓMEZ GARCÍA, F.

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • USABIAGA IBÁÑEZ, C.

    (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

En este artículo analizamos e interpretamos la evolución de la relación inflación-desempleo de la economía española en el período 1964-98, a la luz de las teorías existentes en este área -curva de Phillips tradicional, curva de Phillips ampliada con expectativas, tasa natural de desempleo-NAIRU, histéresis, tasa de sacrificio, etc. En esa evolución de la relación inflación-desempleo de la economía española distinguimos y caracterizamos una serie de etapas, y apuntamos sus principales factores explicativos. En nuestro análisis prestamos especial atención al fenómeno de la histéresis en el desempleo y a la tasa de sacrificio impuesta por la desinflación llevada a cabo en la economía española en las dos últimas décadas. Asimismo, abordamos sucintamente la comparación con la evolución de la relación inflación-desempleo en otros países y especulamos sobre la posible evolución futura de esta relación para la economía española. In this article we analyse and interpret the evolution of the inflation-unemployment relation in the Spanish economy (1964-98), in the light of the existing theories in this area -traditional Phillips curve, expectations- augmented Phillips curve, natural rate of unemployment-NAIRU, hysteresis, sacrifice ratio, etc. In the evolution of the inflation-unemployment relation we distinguish and characterize different stages, and we establish the main explanatory factors. In our analysis we pay special attention to the phenomenon of hysteresis in unemployment and to the sacrifice ratio suffered by the Spanish economy due to the disinflation process which has occurred in recent decades. We also comment on the evolution of the inflation-unemployment relation in other countries and the expected future evolution of this relation in the Spanish economy.

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Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 65-86

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:13_3_4
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