IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kuk/journl/v50y2017i3p299-336.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What predicts Financial (In)Stability? A Bayesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Michael Sigmund

    () (OOesterreichische Nationalbank, Financial Stability and Macroprudential Supervision Division, Otto Wagner Platz 3, 1090 Vienna Austria)

  • Dr. Ingrid Stein

    () (Deutsche Bundesbank, Department of Financial Stability, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60431 Frankfurt Germany)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on early warning indicators by applying a Bayesian model averaging approach. Our analysis, based on Austrian data, is carried out in two steps: First, we construct a quarterly financial stress index (AFSI) quantifying the level of stress in the Austrian financial system. Second, we examine the predictive power of various indicators, as measured by their ability to forecast the AFSI. Our approach allows us to investigate a large number of indicators. The results show that banks’ share price growth and cross-border lending are among the best early warning indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Michael Sigmund & Dr. Ingrid Stein, 2017. "What predicts Financial (In)Stability? A Bayesian Approach," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(3), pages 299-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:kuk:journl:v:50:y:2017:i:3:p:299-336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lo Luca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress : Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2011. "What Drives Aggregate Credit Risk?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 72-87.
    3. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    4. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
    5. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    7. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Kasper Lund-Jensen, 2012. "Monitoring Systemic Risk Basedon Dynamic Thresholds," IMF Working Papers 12/159, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited; On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    12. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Total credit as an early warning indicator for systemic banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    13. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    14. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 102-117.
    15. Thomas Kick & Nadya Jahn, 2014. "Early Warning Indicators for the German Banking System: A Macroprudential Analysis," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 47(1), pages 5-47.
    16. Casals, J. & García-Hiernaux, A. & Jerez, M., 2012. "From general state-space to VARMAX models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(5), pages 924-936.
    17. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    18. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88 Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2012. "Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2147-2161.
    20. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Nicolas R Blancher & Srobona Mitra & Hanan Morsy & Akira Otani & Tiago Severo & Laura Valderrama, 2013. "Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide," IMF Working Papers 13/168, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    23. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database; An Update," IMF Working Papers 12/163, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    26. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
    27. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2011. "What is really common in the run-up to banking crises?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 211-214.
    28. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
    29. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-1.
    30. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy; What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2004. "Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 550-565, December.
    32. Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana & Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip, 2013. "Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 673-681.
    33. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    34. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    35. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:wea:econth:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2017. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," ESRB Working Paper Series 45, European Systemic Risk Board.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kuk:journl:v:50:y:2017:i:3:p:299-336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Credit and Capital Markets). General contact details of provider: http://www.credit-and-capital-markets.de/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.