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Towards a More Stable and Sustainable Financial Architecture – A Discussion and Application of the Quantity Theory of Credit


  • Richard A. Werner

    () (Chair in International Banking, Director, Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development, University of Southampton Management School, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)


Thanks to the banking crisis, there has been a greater awareness that leading economic theories and models, as well as influential advanced textbooks in macroeconomics and monetary economics may have been amiss when they neglected to include banks in their analyses. Economists are now labouring to include banking in their models. However already sixteen years ago a paper was published in Kredit und Kapital which presented probably the simplest possible framework that incorporates the economic consequences of banking into a macroeconomic framework: The ‘Quantity Theory of Credit’ (QTC, Werner (1997)). It resolves a number of perceived ‘anomalies’ in macroeconomics and finance, can be used to explain and predict banking crises, and carries a number of policy implications about how to enhance financial stability and deliver sustainable growth. Unlike many better known and far more complex models and theories, it has fared well during the turbulent period since it was proposed. In this paper QTC is revisited and a number of questions that have been raised in the profession concerning it are discussed. It is then applied to the following questions: how to detect and avoid banking crises; how to deliver sustainable and stable economic growth; how to end post-crisis recessions quickly – such as those in many European economies – while minimising costs to the tax payer; and finally, what a financial architecture would look like that has a higher chance of delivering the latter goals on a regular basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard A. Werner, 2013. "Towards a More Stable and Sustainable Financial Architecture – A Discussion and Application of the Quantity Theory of Credit," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 46(3), pages 357-387.
  • Handle: RePEc:kuk:journl:v:46:y:2013:i:3:p:357-387

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    Cited by:

    1. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "Enhanced Debt Management: Solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 443-469.
    2. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "Can banks individually create money out of nothing? — The theories and the empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    4. Werner, Richard A., 2016. "A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 361-379.
    5. repec:eee:ecolec:v:146:y:2018:i:c:p:26-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mullineux, Andy, 2014. "Banking for the public good," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 87-94.
    7. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.

    More about this item


    bank credit; banking and the economy; credit creation; disaggregation of credit; methodology; quantity equation; macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies


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