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Financial Predictors of Real Activity and the Propagation of Aggregate Shocks

  • Johann Burgstaller

    (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz, Institut für betriebliche Finanzwirtschaft, Abteilung für Asset Management, Freistädterstraße 315, A-4040 Linz/Österreich)

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    Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail interest rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this respect. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for a financial accelerator being behind this finding. The euro area corporate bond market may, however, represent a shock propagation channel of certain relevance for the Austrian economy. Keywords: Leading indicator, business cycle, shock propagation, financial accelerator, bank markup.

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    Article provided by Credit and Capital Markets in its journal Kredit und Kapital.

    Volume (Year): 42 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 1–23

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    Handle: RePEc:kuk:journl:v:42:y:2009:i:1:p:1-23
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