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Spatial Variation in Reverse Mortgages Usage: House Price Dynamics and Consumer Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Donald Haurin

    () (The Ohio State University)

  • Chao Ma

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Stephanie Moulton

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Maximilian Schmeiser

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  • Jason Seligman

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Wei Shi

    (The Ohio State University)

Abstract

Abstract Reverse mortgages have been obtained by nearly one million senior households. In the future, the number of eligible households will grow substantially, about 80 % are homeowners, and many of them have substantial equity in their home. We study state-level variations in rate of originations of HUD’s Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) product. Our focus is on the impact of house prices on the origination rate. We test the hypothesis that in states where real house prices are volatile and the current level is above the long term norm, seniors rationally anticipate future reductions in house prices and lock-in their housing equity gains by obtaining a reverse mortgage. We test alternative hypotheses, the first being that seniors living in states with high rates of house price appreciation increase their use of HECMs as a means to convert an illiquid wealth capital gain into a more liquid asset. A second alternative hypothesis is that the intertemporal changes in originations of HECMs were a result of changes in the supply of mortgage originators. Our empirical work supports the hypothesis that seniors used HECMs to insure against house price declines, but we find no evidence in support of the alternative hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Haurin & Chao Ma & Stephanie Moulton & Maximilian Schmeiser & Jason Seligman & Wei Shi, 2016. "Spatial Variation in Reverse Mortgages Usage: House Price Dynamics and Consumer Selection," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 392-417, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:53:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-014-9463-2 DOI: 10.1007/s11146-014-9463-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Greenhalgh-Stanley, Nadia, 2012. "Medicaid and the housing and asset decisions of the elderly: Evidence from estate recovery programs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 210-224.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
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    5. Bradford Case & Ann B. Schnare, 1994. "Preliminary Evaluation of the HECM Reverse Mortgage Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 301-346.
    6. Christopher J. Mayer & Katerina V. Simons, 1994. "Reverse Mortgages and the Liquidity of Housing Wealth," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 235-255.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    8. Hui Shan, 2011. "Reversing the Trend: The Recent Expansion of the Reverse Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 743-768, December.
    9. Irina A. Telyukova & Makoto Nakajima, 2011. "Reverse Mortgage Loans: A Quantitative Analysis," 2011 Meeting Papers 387, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephanie Moulton & Donald Haurin & Samuel Dodini & Maximilian D. Schmeiser, 2016. "How Home Equity Extraction and Reverse Mortgages Affect the Credit Outcomes of Senior Households," Working Papers wp351, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    2. Shi, Wei & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 323-347.
    3. Irina A. Telyukova & Makoto Nakajima, 2011. "Reverse Mortgage Loans: A Quantitative Analysis," 2011 Meeting Papers 387, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reverse mortgages; Mortgage choice; Senior housing;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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