Spatial Variation in Reverse Mortgages Usage: House Price Dynamics and Consumer Selection
Abstract Reverse mortgages have been obtained by nearly one million senior households. In the future, the number of eligible households will grow substantially, about 80 % are homeowners, and many of them have substantial equity in their home. We study state-level variations in rate of originations of HUD’s Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) product. Our focus is on the impact of house prices on the origination rate. We test the hypothesis that in states where real house prices are volatile and the current level is above the long term norm, seniors rationally anticipate future reductions in house prices and lock-in their housing equity gains by obtaining a reverse mortgage. We test alternative hypotheses, the first being that seniors living in states with high rates of house price appreciation increase their use of HECMs as a means to convert an illiquid wealth capital gain into a more liquid asset. A second alternative hypothesis is that the intertemporal changes in originations of HECMs were a result of changes in the supply of mortgage originators. Our empirical work supports the hypothesis that seniors used HECMs to insure against house price declines, but we find no evidence in support of the alternative hypotheses.
Volume (Year): 53 (2016)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/regional+science/journal/11146/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Greenhalgh-Stanley, Nadia, 2012. "Medicaid and the housing and asset decisions of the elderly: Evidence from estate recovery programs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 210-224.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012.
"What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," NBER Working Papers 18400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1876, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Venti, Steven F. & Wise, David A., 1991. "Aging and the income value of housing wealth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 371-397, April.
- Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1990. "Aging and the Income Value of Housing Wealth," NBER Working Papers 3547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bradford Case & Ann B. Schnare, 1994. "Preliminary Evaluation of the HECM Reverse Mortgage Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 301-346.
- Hui Shan, 2011. "Reversing the Trend: The Recent Expansion of the Reverse Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 743-768, December.
- Hui Shan, 2009. "Reversing the trend: the recent expansion of the reverse mortgage market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
- Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd Sinai & Nicholas Souleles, 2013. "Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 282-312, May.
- Todd M. Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2009. "Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?," NBER Working Papers 15462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher J. Mayer & Katerina V. Simons, 1994. "Reverse Mortgages and the Liquidity of Housing Wealth," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 235-255.
- Irina A. Telyukova & Makoto Nakajima, 2011. "Reverse Mortgage Loans: A Quantitative Analysis," 2011 Meeting Papers 387, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nakajima, Makoto & Telyukova, Irina A., 2014. "Reverse mortgage loans: a quantitative analysis," Working Papers 14-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Makoto Nakajima & Irina A. Telyukova, 2013. "Reverse mortgage loans: a quantitative analysis," Working Papers 13-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Purvi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2011. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Updating of Expectations by Older Americans," Working Papers wp259, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)