Common Trends and Common Cycles in Per Capita GDP: The Case of the G7 Countries, 1870–2001
In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993 ) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000 ; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002 ) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988 ). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2008
Volume (Year): 14 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Suite 650, International Tower, 229 Peachtree Street, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30303|
Phone: (404) 965-1555
Fax: (404) 965-1556
Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=112112
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vahid, F. & Issler, J.V., 2001.
"The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
2/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
- Vahid, Farshid & Jaime Júnior, Pedro, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
- Gavosto, Andrea & Pellegrini, Guido, 1999. "Demand and supply shocks in Italy:: An application to industrial output," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1679-1703, October.
- Keating, John W. & Nye, John V., 1999. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances in the G7 Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 263-278, April.
- Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-32, September.
- Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988.
"Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002.
"Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
- Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity and P-T Decomposition in Cointegrated VAR Systems with Common Features," CESifo Working Paper Series 660, CESifo Group Munich.
- Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, March.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986.
"The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy,"
in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1984. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December.
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
- Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993.
"International Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-59, June.
- Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:3:p:280-290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.