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Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach

Author

Listed:
  • M. Hakan Berument

    () (Bilkent University)

  • N. Nergiz Dincer

    () (TED University)

  • Pinar Yasar

    () (Hacettepe University)

Abstract

Abstract This study analyzes the persistency of total and disaggregated Turkish exports for different shock magnitudes using the quantile autoregression (QAR) method in line with Koenker and Xiao (J Am Stat Assoc 99:775–787, 2004). The results suggest that the persistence of shocks are not similar across different quantiles of Total Exports and disaggregated export sectors, indicating an asymmetry in the case of negative and positive shocks across different export sectors. The persistency behavior of Total Exports as well as Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Basic Metals, Raw Materials, Motor Vehicles and Radio & TV exports are asymmetric to negative versus positive shocks, which cannot be captured by traditional unit root tests. Thus, sound interpretation of QAR results is necessary for policy makers to identify shock characteristics and thereby pursue appropriate policies for overcoming adverse impacts on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2016. "Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 445-460, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:43:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-015-9301-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-015-9301-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2014. "External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 476-484.
    4. Nergiz Dincer & Magda Kandil, 2011. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 809-837, June.
    5. Muhammed Islam, 1998. "Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
    6. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
    7. Ilhan Ozturk & Ali Acaravci, 2010. "Testing the export-led growth hypothesis:empirical evidence from Turkey," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 245-254, September.
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    9. Boengiu, Tudor & Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "Debt Ceiling and External Debt Sustainability in Romania: A Quantile Autoregression Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 15-29, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export demand; Unit root; Quantile autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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