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Alternde Bevoelkerung und Gesundheitsausgaben, Eine theoretische Analyse demographischer Ausgabeneffekte auf den Beitragssatz der GKV

  • Dieter Cassel

    ()

    (Universitaet Duisburg-Essen)

  • Andreas Postler

    ()

    (GDA-Gesamtverband der Aluminiumindustrie e.V., Duesseldorf)

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    Relevant publications discuss the relation between the demographic process and per-capita health care expenditures (HCE) in a controversial manner. This concerns theory as well as the results of empirical research. Therefore, this paper discusses the influence of an ageing population on HCE in a theoretical framework. It breaks down HCE into three components: time-to-death, morbidity and age structure. The components are analysed theoretically and the results are contrasted with the results of empirical surveys. The paper closes with a discussion whether to include costs of dying and changing morbidity explicitly into forecasting future HCE or not.

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    Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 227 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 5+6 (December)
    Pages: 578-602

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    Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:5-6:p:578-602
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    1. Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Felder, 2004. "Life Expectancy and Health Care Expenditures: A New Calculation for Germany Using the Costs of Dying," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 452, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Christian Salas & James P. Raftery, 2001. "Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(7), pages 669-671.
    3. Cassel, Dieter & Oberdieck, Veit, 2002. "Kapitaldeckung in der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1998 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(1), pages 15-22.
    4. Brockmann, Hilke, 2002. "Why is less money spent on health care for the elderly than for the rest of the population? Health care rationing in German hospitals," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 593-608, August.
    5. Alan M. Garber & Thomas E. MaCurdy & Mark C. McClellan, 1998. "Medical Care at the End of Life: Diseases, Treatment Patterns, and Costs," NBER Working Papers 6748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Victor R. Fuchs, 1984. ""Though Much is Taken" -- Reflections on Aging, Health, and Medical Care," NBER Working Papers 1269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Friedrich Breyer & Volker Ulrich, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17.
    8. Stefan Fetzer & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2005. "Zur Wiederbelebung des Generationenvertrags in der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung: Die Freiburger Agenda," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 255-274, 05.
    9. Joseph P. Newhouse, 1992. "Medical Care Costs: How Much Welfare Loss?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 3-21, Summer.
    10. Steinmann Lukas & Telser Harry & Zweifel Peter S., 2007. "Aging and Future Healthcare Expenditure: A Consistent Approach," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, March.
    11. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
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