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A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals

Author

Listed:
  • Karl H. Schlag
  • Joël J. van der Weele

Abstract

We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a ``most likely interval'', a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how well the answer compares to the actual outcome. We show that the MLI performs well in economic experiments, and satisfies a number of desirable theoretical properties such as robustness to the risk preferences of the expert.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl H. Schlag & Joël J. van der Weele, 2015. "A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(5), pages 456-468, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:jdm:journl:v:10:y:2015:i:5:p:456-468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cettolin, Elena & Riedl, Arno & Tran, Thu Giang, 2016. "Giving in the Face of Risk," Research Memorandum 035, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Cettolin, Elena & Riedl, Arno & Tran, Giang, 2017. "Giving in the face of risk," Other publications TiSEM 0ed4d209-f852-440c-a012-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. repec:kap:jrisku:v:55:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-017-9270-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mengel F. & Peeters R.J.A.P., 2015. "Do markets encourage risk-seeking behaviour?," Research Memorandum 042, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

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