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A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals

Listed author(s):
  • Karl H. Schlag
  • Joël J. van der Weele

We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a ``most likely interval'', a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how well the answer compares to the actual outcome. We show that the MLI performs well in economic experiments, and satisfies a number of desirable theoretical properties such as robustness to the risk preferences of the expert.

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Article provided by Society for Judgment and Decision Making in its journal Judgment and Decision Making.

Volume (Year): 10 (2015)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 456-468

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Handle: RePEc:jdm:journl:v:10:y:2015:i:5:p:456-468
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  17. Elena Cettolin & Arno Riedl, 2013. "Justice under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4326, CESifo Group Munich.
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  19. Elena Cettolin & Arno Riedl, 2011. "Partial Coercion, Conditional Cooperation, and Self-Commitment in Voluntary Contributions to Public Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 3556, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
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