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Konjunktur aktuell: Eurokrise nimmt deutscher Konjunktur den Wind aus den Segeln

  • Arbeitskreis Konjunktur des IWH
  • Kiel Economics
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    Im Herbst 2012 stellen sich Lage und Aussichten für die deutsche Konjunktur deutlich schlechter dar als vor einem halben Jahr. Hauptgrund dafür sind die immer neuen Schübe der Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise im Euroraum. Auch die Weltkonjunktur hat generell an Kraft verloren. Die Produktion hat in Deutschland in der ersten Jahreshälfte weiter zugelegt. Auch im dritten Quartal 2012 dürfte sie zunehmen, und zwar um 0,4%. Für das Winterhalbjahr 2012/ 2013 deutet sich dann allerdings eine Verlangsamung des konjunkturellen Fahrtempos an. Alles in allem wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2012 voraussichtlich um 0,9% und 2013 um 0,8% zulegen. Das 66%-Prognoseintervall liegt für das Jahr 2012 zwischen 0,7% und 1,1%; im Jahr 2013 reicht es von –0,2% bis 1,8%.

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    File URL: http://www.iwh-halle.de/d/publik/wiwa/8-12-3.pdf
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    Article provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wirtschaft im Wandel.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 8-9 ()
    Pages: 228-258

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    Handle: RePEc:iwh:iwhwiw:8-12-3
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