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Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?

Author

Listed:
  • Mirko Kremer

    () (Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802)

  • Stefan Minner

    () (Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University of Vienna, 1210 Vienna, Austria)

  • Luk N. Van Wassenhove

    () (Technology and Operations Management, INSEAD, 77305 Fontainebleau Cedex, France)

Abstract

Previous experimental work showed that newsvendors tend to order closer to mean demand than prescribed by the normative critical fractile solution. A recently proposed explanation for this mean ordering behavior assumes that the decision maker commits random choice errors, and predicts the mean ordering pattern because there is more room to err toward mean demand than away from it. Do newsvendors exhibit mean ordering simply because they make random errors? We subject this hypothesis to an empirical test that rests on the fact that the random error explanation is insensitive to context. Our results strongly support the existence of context-sensitive decision strategies that rely directly on (biased) order-to-demand mappings, such as mean demand anchoring, demand chasing, and inventory error minimization.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirko Kremer & Stefan Minner & Luk N. Van Wassenhove, 2010. "Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 673-681, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormsom:v:12:y:2010:i:4:p:673-681
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/msom.1100.0294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahesh Nagarajan & Steven Shechter, 2014. "Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 1057-1062, April.
    2. Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Guido Voigt, 2017. "Strategic risk in supply chain contract design," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 125-153, January.
    3. Elahi, Ehsan & Lamba, Narasimha & Ramaswamy, Chinthana, 2013. "How can we improve the performance of supply chain contracts? An experimental study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-157.
    4. repec:eee:jeborg:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:301-315 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
    6. Gary E. Bolton & Axel Ockenfels & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2012. "Managers and Students as Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2225-2233, December.
    7. Xiaoyang Long & Javad Nasiry, 2015. "Prospect Theory Explains Newsvendor Behavior: The Role of Reference Points," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 3009-3012, December.
    8. Mohammad Reza Nikbakht & Mehrdad Sadr Ara, 2016. "A new experimental model for profit maximization," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 45-52, June.
    9. Yufei Ren & Rachel Croson, 2013. "Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2502-2517, November.
    10. repec:eee:jomega:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:132-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ockenfels, Axel & Selten, Reinhard, 2014. "Impulse balance in the newsvendor game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-247.
    12. Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
    13. Andreas Fügener & Sebastian Schiffels & Rainer Kolisch, 2017. "Overutilization and underutilization of operating rooms - insights from behavioral health care operations management," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 115-128, March.
    14. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif K., 2014. "Probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model," Discussion Papers 2014/41, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    15. repec:eee:ejores:v:276:y:2019:i:1:p:217-234 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif, 2017. "Statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 251-261.
    17. Schiffels, Sebastian & Fügener, Andreas & Kolisch, Rainer & Jens Brunner, O., 2014. "On the assessment of costs in a newsvendor environment: Insights from an experimental study," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    18. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2009. "Observation bias: The impact of demand censoring on newsvendor level and adjustment behavior," Harvard Business School Working Papers 12-042, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2011.
    19. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Köster, Mats, 2017. "Salient compromises in the newsvendor game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 301-315.
    20. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2014. "Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1334-1345, May.
    21. Mirko Kremer & Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen, 2011. "Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1827-1843, October.
    22. Li Chen & A. Gürhan Kök & Jordan D. Tong, 2013. "The Effect of Payment Schemes on Inventory Decisions: The Role of Mental Accounting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 436-451, September.
    23. repec:eee:proeco:v:197:y:2018:i:c:p:186-196 is not listed on IDEAS

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