IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormsom/v12y2010i2p256-277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Optimal Composition of Influenza Vaccines Subject to Random Production Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Soo-Haeng Cho

    () (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

Abstract

The Vaccine and Related Biologic Products Advisory Committee meets at least once a year to decide the composition of seasonal influenza vaccine in the United States. Past evidence suggests that the committee could use a more systematic approach to incorporate observed information and to quantify the risks associated with different options. There are two key trade-offs involved in this decision. First, if the Committee decides to retain the current vaccine composition instead of updating to a new one, there is lower uncertainty in production yields, but the current vaccine could be less effective if a new virus strain spreads. Second, if the Committee decides early with less information, then manufacturers have more production time, but the reduced information increases the risk of choosing a wrong strain. We derive an optimal dynamic policy for this decision. Because of the greater uncertainty in production yields of new vaccines, the optimal thresholds are neither symmetric between retaining and updating the composition nor monotonic over time. We apply our model to past decisions using parameter values estimated from a historical case. Our analysis shows that the dynamic optimal policy can significantly improve social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Soo-Haeng Cho, 2010. "The Optimal Composition of Influenza Vaccines Subject to Random Production Yields," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 256-277, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormsom:v:12:y:2010:i:2:p:256-277
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/msom.1090.0271
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin F. McCardle, 1985. "Information Acquisition and the Adoption of New Technology," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(11), pages 1372-1389, November.
    2. Leslie Olin Morgan & Ruskin M. Morgan & William L. Moore, 2001. "Quality and Time-to-Market Trade-offs when There Are Multiple Product Generations," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 89-104, June.
    3. Morris A. Cohen & Jehoshua Eliasberg & Teck-Hua Ho, 1996. "New Product Development: The Performance and Time-to-Market Tradeoff," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 173-186, February.
    4. Gilvan C. Souza & Barry L. Bayus & Harvey M. Wagner, 2004. "New-Product Strategy and Industry Clockspeed," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(4), pages 537-549, April.
    5. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    6. Sarang Deo & Charles J. Corbett, 2009. "Cournot Competition Under Yield Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Market," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 563-576, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kenan Arifoglu & Sarang Deo & Seyed M. R. Iravani, 2012. "Consumption Externality and Yield Uncertainty in the Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain: Interventions in Demand and Supply Sides," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1072-1091, June.
    2. Duijzer, L.E. & van Jaarsveld, W.L. & Wallinga, J. & Dekker, R., 2015. "Dose-optimal vaccine allocation over multiple populations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    4. Silva, Maria Laura & Perrier, Lionel & Cohen, Jean Marie & Paget, William John & Mosnier, Anne & Späth, Hans Martin, 2015. "A literature review to identify factors that determine policies for influenza vaccination," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(6), pages 697-708.
    5. Duijzer, L.E. & van Jaarsveld, W.L. & Dekker, R., 2017. "The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2017-03, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Adida, Elodie & Dey, Debabrata & Mamani, Hamed, 2013. "Operational issues and network effects in vaccine markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 414-427.
    7. Begen, Mehmet A. & Pun, Hubert & Yan, Xinghao, 2016. "Supply and demand uncertainty reduction efforts and cost comparison," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 125-134.
    8. Yarmand, Hamed & Ivy, Julie S. & Denton, Brian & Lloyd, Alun L., 2014. "Optimal two-phase vaccine allocation to geographically different regions under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 208-219.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormsom:v:12:y:2010:i:2:p:256-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.