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Strategies for Prediction Under Imperfect Monitoring

Author

Listed:
  • Gábor Lugosi

    () (ICREA and Department of Economics, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain)

  • Shie Mannor

    () (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, McGill University, Montreal, Québec, Canada)

  • Gilles Stoltz

    () (Département de Mathématiques et Applications, Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS, Paris, France, and HEC Paris School of Management, CNRS, Jouy-en-Josas, France)

Abstract

We propose simple randomized strategies for sequential decision (or prediction) under imperfect monitoring, that is, when the decision maker (forecaster) does not have access to the past outcomes but rather to a feedback signal. The proposed strategies are consistent in the sense that they achieve, asymptotically, the best-possible average reward among all fixed actions. It was Rustichini [Rustichini, A. 1999. Minimizing regret: The general case. Games Econom. Behav. 29 224--243] who first proved the existence of such consistent predictors. The forecasters presented here offer the first constructive proof of consistency. Moreover, the proposed algorithms are computationally efficient. We also establish upper bounds for the rates of convergence. In the case of deterministic feedback signals, these rates are optimal up to logarithmic terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Lugosi & Shie Mannor & Gilles Stoltz, 2008. "Strategies for Prediction Under Imperfect Monitoring," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 513-528, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormoor:v:33:y:2008:i:3:p:513-528
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. MERTENS , Jean-François & SORIN , Sylvain & ZAMIR , Shmuel, 1994. "Repeated Games. Part B : The Central Results," CORE Discussion Papers 1994021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi & Gábor Lugosi & Gilles Stoltz, 2006. "Regret Minimization Under Partial Monitoring," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(3), pages 562-580, August.
    3. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    4. MERTENS , Jean-François & SORIN , Sylvain & ZAMIR , Shmuel, 1994. "Repeated Games. Part A : Background Material," CORE Discussion Papers 1994020, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1996. "Laws of Large Numbers for Hilbert Space-Valued Mixingales with Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 284-304, June.
    6. Nicolo Cesa Bianchi & Gábor Lugosi, 1998. "On prediction of individual sequences," Economics Working Papers 324, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Nimrod Megiddo, 1979. "On Repeated Games with Incomplete Information Played by Non-Bayesian Players," Discussion Papers 373, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    8. MERTENS, Jean-François & SORIN , Sylvain & ZAMIR , Shmuel, 1994. "Repeated Games. Part C : Further Developments," CORE Discussion Papers 1994022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehud Lehrer & Eilon Solan, 2016. "A General Internal Regret-Free Strategy," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 112-138, March.
    2. Ehud Lehrer & Eilon Solan, 2007. "Learning to play partially-specified equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001436, David K. Levine.

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