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A Study Of Indonesia’S Stock Market: How Predictable Is It?

Author

Listed:
  • Dinh Hoang Bach Phan

    (Taylor’s University)

  • Thi Thao Nguyen Nguyen

    (The University of Da Nang-University of Science and Technology)

  • Dat Thanh Nguyen

    (The University of Da Nang)

Abstract

Using monthly data from January 1995 to December 2017, this paper tests whether Indonesian stock index returns are predictable. In particular, we use eight macro variables to predict the Indonesian composite and six sectoral index returns using the feasible generalized least squares estimator. Our results suggest that the Indonesian stock index returns are predictable. However, the predictability depends not only on the macro predictor used but also on the indexes examined. Second, we find that the most popular predictor is the exchange rate, followed by the interest rate. Finally, our main findings hold for a number of robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Thi Thao Nguyen Nguyen & Dat Thanh Nguyen, 2019. "A Study Of Indonesia’S Stock Market: How Predictable Is It?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 0(12th BMEB), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp2:p:1-12
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v0i0.969
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Laila, Nisful, 2019. "Is Indonesia's stock market different when it comes to predictability?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard, 2019. "Do oil prices predict Indonesian macroeconomy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 2-12.
    4. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Tee, Chwee Ming & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2021. "Oil price uncertainty, CSR and institutional quality: A cross-country evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & He, Chengting, 2020. "Crude oil and BRICS stock markets under extreme shocks: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 54-68.
    6. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Le, Anh, 2020. "The importance of managerial ability on crude oil price uncertainty-firm performance relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "US government shutdowns and Indonesian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Naufa, Ahmad Maulin & Lantara, I Wayan Nuka & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2019. "The impact of foreign ownership on return volatility, volume, and stock risks: Evidence from ASEAN countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 221-235.
    9. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predictability of GCC stock returns: The role of geopolitical risk and crude oil returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-249.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Returns; Predictability; Macro Predictors; Investor Utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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