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Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal Terhadap Output dan Inflasi

Author

Listed:
  • Ndari Surjaningsih

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • G. A. Diah Utari

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Budi Trisnanto

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

Penelitian ini melihat dampak kebijakan fiskal terhadap output dan inflasi serta melihat apakah terdapat diskresi kebijakan fiskal dan bagaimana dampaknya terhadap volatilitas output dan inflasi. Model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)diaplikasikan atas data triwulanan, mencakup periode 1990 - 2009. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan pajak terhadap output dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka panjang pengenaan pajak berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sementara pengeluaran pemerintah tidak. Penyesuaian jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa shock kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintah berdampak positif terhadap output sementara shock kenaikan pajak berdampak negatif.Lebih dominannya pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap output dalam jangka pendek dibandingkan dengan pajak menunjukkan masih cukup efektifnya kebijakan ini untuk menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi khususnya dalam masa resesi. Sementara itu kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintahmenyebabkan penurunan inflasi, sementara peningkatan pajak menyebabkan peningkatan inflasi. Studi ini juga menunjukkan tidak adanya diskresi kebijakan fiskal yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah.

Suggested Citation

  • Ndari Surjaningsih & G. A. Diah Utari & Budi Trisnanto, 2012. "Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal Terhadap Output dan Inflasi," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 14(4), pages 1-32, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:14:y:2012:i:4:p:1-32
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i4.365
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    Cited by:

    1. Srinita Srinita & Kharisya Ayu Effendi, 2021. "Energy Policy Analysis, Monetary and Fiscal on Inflation Volatility in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 309-314.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; output; fiscal policy; tax; discretionary; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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