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Understanding the Importance of the Duration and Size of the Variations of Fed’s Target Rate

Listed author(s):
  • Florian Ielpo
  • Dominique Gúegan

This paper intends to show that the variations in the target rate level and the duration between two variations in the target rate do not necessarily react to the same factors. For this purpose, the paper uses a model derived from Engle and Russell (2005). It proposes to model differently the duration between two changes in the target rate and the target rate variations. Extracting the factors driving monetary policy using enhanced principal component analysis, namely the partial least square algorithm, the paper shows that durations and the variations in the target rate time series react differently to each factor.

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Article provided by IUP Publications in its journal The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): VII (2009)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (August)
Pages: 44-72

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Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjmo:v:07:y:2009:i:3-4:p:44-72
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  1. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1994. "Forecasting Transaction Rates: The Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model," NBER Working Papers 4966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
  3. Andreas M. Fischer & Mathias Zurlinden, 2004. "Are Interventions Self Exciting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 223-237, July.
  4. Andreas M. Fischer, 2000. "Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?," Working Papers 00.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  6. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June.
  7. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
  8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  10. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
  11. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
  12. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  13. BAUWENS, Luc & GIOT, Pierre, 1998. "Asymmetric ACD models: introducing price information in ACD models with a two state transition model," CORE Discussion Papers 1998044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Meitz, Mika & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Evaluating Models of Autoregressive Conditional Duration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 104-124, January.
  15. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
  17. Russell, Jeffrey R. & Engle, Robert F., 2005. "A Discrete-State Continuous-Time Model of Financial Transactions Prices and Times: The Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial-Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 166-180, April.
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