IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Employment And Real Income Of Agriculture In India, China And Oecd Countries: Econometric Models And Evolution 1950-2000


  • Maria-Carmen
  • Pilar


One of the most striking changes in socio-economic life of OECD countries during the 20th century has been the diminution of the share of agricultural income and employment in the economic activity. Many rural areas have experienced important migratory movements to larger villages and towns, in search of employment and income in non-agrarian activities elsewhere. Here we analyse the main factors which explain those changes in OECD countries during the 20th century and the challenges that similar movements could represent for India, China, and other developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. We present three econometric models to explain the evolution of agrarian employment in India and China in1950-2000, and analyse the perspectives of diminution of this variable in during the next decades. The main conclusion points to the great importance of fostering economic policies focused on human capital and industrial development in order to achieve higher levels of non-agrarian employment at national and regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • GUISAN & Maria-Carmen & EXPOSITO & Pilar, 2004. "Employment And Real Income Of Agriculture In India, China And Oecd Countries: Econometric Models And Evolution 1950-2000," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(5), pages 7-17, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjae:v:03:y:2004:i:5:p:7-17

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Vito Tanzi, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis, 1960-84 (Déficits budgétaires et taux d'intérêt aux Etats-Unis: analyse empirique, 1960-84) (El déficit fiscal y la," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 551-576, December.
    3. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    5. Barth, James R & Iden, George & Russek, Frank S, 1986. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1158-1167, December.
    6. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    7. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
    8. Cebula, Richard J. & Saltz, Ira S., 1998. "Ex Ante Real Long-Term Interest Rates and U.S. Federal Budget Deficits: Preliminary Error-Correction Evidence, 1971-1991," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 51(2), pages 163-169.
    9. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-375, November.
    10. Cebula, Richard J, 1988. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the United States, 1955-1984," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 43(3), pages 337-348.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:icf:icfjae:v:03:y:2004:i:5:p:7-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (G R K Murty). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.