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Inflation and monetary policy in October 2025

Author

Listed:
  • Evgeniy Goryunov

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Pavel Trunin

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Maria Chembulatova

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

At its meeting on October 24, 2025, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.5% per annum. In October, annual inflation over the past 12 months was 7.7% y/y, which is the lowest figure since March 2024. Compared to the previous month, the overall level of consumer prices increased by 0.5%. Pro-inflationary risks continue to prevail over disinflationary ones. Among the main pro-inflationary factors are: growth in lending, inflationary expectations and the budget deficit, continued tension in the labor market, lower oil prices, indexation of tariffs for housing and communal services, and VAT.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgeniy Goryunov & Pavel Trunin & Maria Chembulatova, 2025. "Inflation and monetary policy in October 2025," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 27, pages 1-5, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:monreo:monreo-2025-27-1467
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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