Potential Threats to Apple Producers in Bulgaria and Poland in Light of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement

Purpose: The aim of the article was a comparative analysis of apple production and market dynamics in Bulgaria and Poland for the period 2020-2023 and an analysis of Polish and Bulgarian apple exports and imports to and from Mercosur countries, including an assessment of potential threats in the fruit market. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study presents a comparative analysis of apple production and market dynamics in Bulgaria and Poland for the period 2020-2023, using data on harvested areas, average yields, production, gross production, subsidies, fresh produce prices, and foreign trade flows. The analysis used a case study method, a qualitative research approach, for in-depth, detailed research. The study was based on statistical data from the FAOSTAT database, which is an official platform of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), as well as the World Integrated Trade Solution, which provides internationally comparable information on the status and dynamics of some indicators of apple production in selected countries. The COMTRADE database was also used as a source of trade data. Findings: A comparison between Bulgaria and Poland in apple production and trade reveals significant differences. Poland is the largest producer in the EU and a significant exporter, supported by high yields, low costs and developed logistics. Bulgaria has smaller areas and volumes, but has climatic advantages for producing high-quality apples, including organic farming and traditional varieties. The data discussed above shows that the EU's agreement with Mercosur countries does not pose a threat to apple producers in Poland and Bulgaria. Polish and Bulgarian exports and imports are primarily directed to European countries. The article processing charge (APC) was funded by the National Support Centre for Agriculture (KOWR) under contract No. CEN.BDG.WP.6515.2.2025.EJ.57. Practical Implications: The results of the research shall be of interest for scientists, politicians and decision makers. The obtained conclusions may be helpful in formulating a national strategy (Bulgaria and Poland) regarding support for the horticultural sector in the context of negotiations concluded on a Partnership Agreement between representatives of the European Union and the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay). Originality/Value: The analysis of changes in trade and the assessment of the influence of supply offer apple from Mercosur countries is of great importance for horticultural producers and processors in the context of making strategic decisions.