Time-varying characteristics of cross-market linkages with empirical application to Gulf stock markets
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose an empirical procedure for examining the time-varying features of cross-market correlations in selected Gulf stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – The paper directly infers the cross-market linkages from the stock data using a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (DCC-GARCH). The paper attempts to date the structural breaks in the time-paths of the conditional correlation indices to investigate whether the cross-market comovement encompasses significant changes in nature or not. Findings – Conditional cross-market correlations between studied markets are shown to be time-varying, past-dependent and subject to structural breaks. However, the comovements are still small within the Gulf region and insignificant between the Gulf stock markets and the world market. Research limitations/implications – Even though the paper attempted to relate the observed changes in market linkages to major economic and political events that the Gulf region experienced during the sample period, a more careful, in-depth analysis is needed since the primary objectives of this paper consist only of measuring stock market comovements and detecting their possible structure changes. Practical implications – For global investors, there is still room for international and regional diversification in Gulf markets, given the low degree of comovements documented in the study. Originality/value – The application of the DCC-GARCH model and structural change test in a linear framework appears to be suitable for studying the time-varying properties of cross-market linkages between markets in the Gulf region. It also provides information about the degree of financial integration of the studied markets with the world stock market through an analysis of the conditional correlation coefficients.
Volume (Year): 36 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=mf Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
- Neaime Simon, 2005. "Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility in the MENA Region: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 59-83, December.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2005.
"International Stock Return Comovements,"
06-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 11906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2008. "International stock return comovements," Working Paper Series 0931, European Central Bank.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2006. "International Stock Return Comovements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Johnson, Robert & Soenen, Luc, 2003. "Economic integration and stock market comovement in the Americas," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100, February.
- Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-60.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, SÃ©bastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003.
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Erratum [Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies]," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages na, October.
- Colm Kearney & Valerio Poti, 2005.
"Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets,"
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997.
"Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richards, Anthony J., 1995.
"Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
- Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability But Not Cointegration," IMF Working Papers 96/28, International Monetary Fund.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Financial Sector Development in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/201, International Monetary Fund.
- Hsin, Chin-Wen, 2004. "A multilateral approach to examining the comovements among major world equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 433-462.
- Lahcen ACHY, 2004. "Financial liberalization, saving, investment and growth in MENA countries," Finance 0411004, EconWPA.
- Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
- Ali F. Darrat & Khaled Elkhal & Sam R. Hakim, 2000. "On the Integration of Emerging Stock Markets in the Middle East," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 119-129, December.
- René M. Stulz, 1995. "The cost of capital in internationally integrated markets: The case of Nestlé," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 11-22.
- Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:mfipps:v:36:y:2010:i:1:p:57-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.