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Profitability of Trading Rules in Futures Markets

In this paper we conduct tests for two different trading rules, namely, the Dual Moving Average (DMA) model and the Channel Breakout (CHB) rule. These rules are tested across five futures contracts – the S&P 500, British Pound, US T-Bonds, COMEX Gold and Corn using daily data over the period 1990 to 1998. Overwhelmingly, we find that the trading rules are unable to produce (gross or net) profits at any statistical level. While positive gross and net profits were available in four of the five markets, the profits were neither economically or statistically significant

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Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Accounting Research Journal.

Volume (Year): 18 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 83-92

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Handle: RePEc:eme:arjpps:v:18:y:2005:i:2:p:83-92
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  1. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
  2. A. Abhyankar & D. Ghosh & E. Levin & R.J. Limmack, 1997. "Bid-ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Intra-day Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 343-362.
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