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A Two Factor Model for PD and LGD Correlation

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  • Jiri Witzany

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Abstract

The paper proposes a two systematic factor model to capture a retail portfolio probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) parameters, in particular their mutual correlation. We argue that the standard one factor models standing behind the Basel II formula and used by a number of studies cannot capture well the correlation between PD and LGD on a large (asymptotic) portfolio. The proposed model is implemented on real banking data giving an estimate of a positive PD and LGD correlation implied by the model slightly above 10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiri Witzany, 2011. "A Two Factor Model for PD and LGD Correlation," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 18(28).
  • Handle: RePEc:czx:journl:v:18:y:2011:i:28:id:183
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    File URL: http://ces.utia.cas.cz/bulletin/index.php/bulletin/article/view/183
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petr Gapko & Martin Smid, 2016. "Multi-Period Structural Model of a Mortgage Portfolio with Cointegrated Factors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 565-574, December.
    2. Petr Gapko & Martin Smid, 2012. "Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 125-140, May.
    3. Jiri Witzany, 2014. "Estimating Default and Recovery Rate Correlations," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 21(33).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; recovery rate; loss given default; correlation; regulatory capital;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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