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Analysis of the open macroeconomy model with rational expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav David
  • Osvald Vašíček

Abstract

The article focuses on the multiple-equations closed-economy macroeconomic model to illustrate the impact of the rational expectation hypothesis. The first stage of the analysis introduces a theoretical model. It contains Phillips curve, IS curve and Taylor policy rule. The second stage of the analysis estimates the states and parameters of the model on the quarterly data of the Czech economy. The third stage of the analysis focuses on the theoretical approach, how to compute rational expectations. In the final stage, the article demonstrates implications of the hypothesis through the response of the model. This shows response on the outputs of the macroeconomic model to anticipated and unanticipated shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav David & Osvald Vašíček, 2004. "Analysis of the open macroeconomy model with rational expectations," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 11(20).
  • Handle: RePEc:czx:journl:v:11:y:2004:i:20:id:135
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    File URL: http://ces.utia.cas.cz/bulletin/index.php/bulletin/article/view/135
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk Tasche, 2004. "The single risk factor approach to capital charges in case of correlated loss given default rates," Papers cond-mat/0402390, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    2. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    4. Jiri Witzany, 2011. "A Two Factor Model for PD and LGD Correlation," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 18(28).
    5. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
    6. Stefano Caselli & Stefano Gatti & Francesca Querci, 2008. "The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34, August.
    7. Seidler, Jakub & Horvath, Roman & Jakubík, Petr, 2009. "Estimating expected loss given default in an emerging market: the case of Czech Republic," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 27, pages 103-107.
    8. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic model; stability; zeros and poles; rational expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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