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Perspektiven 2009/2010 : nur schleppende Belebung

Listed author(s):
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


In Deutschland hat sich die Konjunktur stabilisiert, wenn auch auf deutlich reduziertem Produktionsniveau. Impulse kamen von der privaten Konsumnachfrage. Gestützt hat dabei sicherlich, dass die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt auch dank der Kurzarbeitsregelung relativ stabil blieb. Insgesamt erwarten die Institute daher, dass sich die deutsche Wirtschaft nach dem kräftigen Produktionsanstieg im dritten Quartal 2009 nur langsam aus der Krise bewegt. Für das gesamte Jahr ergibt sich ein Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 5,0 %. Für das kommende Jahr rechnen die Institute mit einer nur zögerlichen Erholung. Endogene Auftriebskräfte werden nur allmählich spürbar, so dass die Konjunktur im Prognosezeitraum auf wirtschaftspolitische Unterstützung angewiesen bleibt. Alles in allem rechnen die Institute für das Jahr 2010 mit einem Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,2 %.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages: 32-36

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v::y:2009:i::p:32-36
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