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Deutschlandprognose 2008/2009 : Abschied vom Aufschwung

Listed author(s):
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist überaus schwungvoll in das neue Jahr gestartet. Nach der auch von Sondereffekten begünstigten kräftigen Ausweitung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion im ersten Quartal 2008 ist für das zweite Quartal mit einem leichten Rückgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts zu rechnen. Im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres 2008 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion zwar wieder etwas anziehen, die Dynamik dürfte aber dabei vergleichsweise schwach bleiben. Alles in allem dürfte die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion im Jahresdurchschnitt 2008 um 2,4% expandieren. Nach dem diesjährigen zyklischen Hochpunkt lassen die konjunkturellen Auftriebskräfte im nächsten Jahr merklich nach, sodass das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2009 voraussichtlich um 1,0% steigen wird.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
Issue (Month): 04 (08)
Pages: 17-24

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:15:y:2008:i:04:p:17-24
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