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Deutschlandprognose 2007/2008: Chancen für einen langen Aufschwung

Listed author(s):
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


In Deutschland hat der konjunkturelle Aufschwung nach der Jahreswende trotz der Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer weiter Bestand. Im Prognosezeitraum dürfte er sich fortsetzen, dabei aber nicht mehr die hohe Dynamik des vergangenen Jahres erreichen. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion wird im laufenden Jahr um 2,6% expandieren. Im Jahr 2008 tritt der Aufschwung in seine Spätphase ein. Die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen steigen nochmals, wenngleich mit einer geringeren Dynamik als bisher. Dafür expandiert der private Konsum im Zuge einer weiter verbesserten Arbeitsmarktlage. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion steigt voraussichtlich um 2,5 %, kalenderbereinigt bedeutet dies allerdings nur noch einen Zuwachs von 2,1 %.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 14 (2007)
Issue (Month): 04 (08)
Pages: 15-23

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:14:y:2007:i:04:p:15-23
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