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Investissement, profitabilité et croissance dans les années quatre-vingt

  • Pierre-Alain Muet
  • Marie-Ange Veganzones

[eng] This paper studies out the traditional explanatory factors of investment, then presents the contribution of a model which takes into account profitability and demand constraints simultaneously. If demand fluctuations are sufficient to explain the fall of investment rate in the first half of the eighties, a stronger growth of demand would not have allowed an investment recovery during this period, due to the deterioration of enterprises financial situation. This recovery was possible in the second half of the eighties because the two conditions — increase of demand and high profitability — were combined. In the first half of the eighties, slow growth, low profitability and high interest rates led enterprises to increase labor productivity through capital replacement rather than to extend production capacities. This could explain the unusual increase of capital intensity in a period of high capital cost, as well as the fact that interest rate do not appear as an heavy constraint for global investment in the econometric estimates. [fre] L'article passe en revue les facteurs explicatifs traditionnels de l'investissement, puis présente l'apport d'un modèle qui prend en compte simultanément les contraintes de débouchés et de profitabilité. Si les fluctuations de la demande suffisent à expliquer la chute du taux d'investissement dans la première moitié des années quatre-vingt, une croissance plus forte de la demande n'aurait pas permis une reprise significative de l'investissement au cours de cette période, en raison de la dégradation de la situation financière des entreprises. Cette reprise a pu se développer dans la seconde moitié des années quatre-vingt parce que les deux conditions — croissance des débouchés et rétablissement de la situation financière des entreprises — étaient réunies. Croissance lente, faible profitabilité, et niveau élevé des taux d'intérêt réels ont conduit, dans la première moitié des années quatre-vingt, les entreprises à privilégier les in

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 41 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 119-150

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_p1992_41n1_0119
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