Retraites et évolutions démographiques en France. Première partie : Le long terme
[eng] Due to the likely ageing of the French population over the coming decades, the future financing of the current public, « pay-as-you-go » pension system is quite worrisome. If the currently foreseen stagnation of the population materializes, a choice will have to be made between keeping the current system, which, in the long run, implies a rather substantial increment in social contribution rates, and altering the benefits. This article offers a framework for evaluating the long-run economic consequences of the various possible scenarios : it presents an overlap- ping-generations, general equilibrium model of the French economy in which individual choices concerning labour supply, consumption, saving and wealth accumulation are endogeneously derived from assumptions on tastes, technologies and institutions. Macroeconomic magnitudes are then simply obtained through exact aggregation of individual behaviours. Because all households' and firms' decisions are endogeneously determined in such a framework, the model is well suited for analysing the consequences on households' labour supply, consumption and saving behaviours, of such institutional changes as reforms in public pension schemes. After the description of the model itself, we present the results of a few demographic variants, which clearly show that the current system would be sustainable in the long run only if population growth is positive. The micro- and macroeconomic effects of various possible options for the future public pension scheme in France are then discussed. The comparison of macroeconomic outcomes and the — individual and social — welfare analysis suggest that, if the forecast of a stagnating French population comes true, raising the legal retirement age would clearly dominate other alternatives such as curtailing benefits or switching to a pure capitalization scheme. [fre] Face au vieillissement probable de la population française au cours des prochaines décennies, les perspectives de finan
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