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Estimation de l'impact sur l'emploi non qualifié des mesures de baisse de charges

  • Corinne Prost
  • Pauline Givord
  • Sophie Audric

[eng] An estimation of the effect of the cuts in social contributions on unskilled employment. . This article evaluates the effect of the cuts in social contributions on unskilled employment. In order to describe the evolution of unskilled employment in the eighties, we construct data series, using a precise definition of the unskilled. With a stylised model, where the unskilled employment is substitutable with both capital and skilled employment, we quantify the impact of a fall of the social contributions. We find that this effect on employment would be large. Moreover, the cost of the measure would be high in the short run but much lower in the long run. [fre] Cet article évalue l'impact sur l'emploi non qualifié de la baisse des taux de cotisations employeurs mise en place progressivement depuis 1993. Pour dégager les principales caractéristiques de l'emploi non qualifié depuis le début des années 1980, des données d'emploi par qualification ont été construites, en utilisant une définition précise de l'emploi non qualifié. Une maquette stylisée de l'économie, dans laquelle l'emploi non qualifié est substituable au capital et au travail qualifié, permet ensuite de quantifier l'effet d'une baisse du taux de cotisations employeurs. Les simulations suggèrent que cet effet serait important. En outre, la mesure serait quasiment autofinancée à long terme, et ce malgré un coût ex ante élevé.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 51 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 513-522

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p2000_51n3_0513
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