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Hausses des barèmes et sorties de l'aide sociale. Les résultats d'une expérience naturelle au Canada

  • Guy Lacroix
  • Bernard Fortin
  • Denis Fougère

[fre] Hausses des barèmes et sorties de l'aide sociale. Les résultats d'une expérience naturelle au Canada. . Notre communication propose une évaluation des effets de la réforme d'août 1989 au Québec sur les taux de sortie de l'aide sociale. Cette réforme a conduit à augmenter très fortement les aides sociales versées aux ménages sans enfant de moins de 30 ans afin de les égalisera celles versées aux ménages comparables de plus de 30 ans. L'analyse non paramétrique montre que seuls les taux de sortie de l'aide sociale semblent avoir été affectés, au moins temporairement, parla réforme. Cette analyse non paramétrique est complétée par l'estimation d'un modèle à ha­sards proportionnels qui tient compte simultanément des effets des caractéristiques individuelles et des variations de l'environnement institutionnel sur les taux de sortie de l'aide sociale. Nos résultats montrent que l'augmentation très significative des barèmes (de 88 ou 146 %, selon les cas) a accru la durée moyenne des épisodes d'aide sociale de 2 à 4,5 mois. [eng] Welfare benefits and the duration of welfare spells: evidence from a natural experiment in Canada. . This paper proposes an evaluation of some effects of the reform of the welfare program that took place in the Province of Quebec in August 1989. This reform abolished the discrimination based on age that applied to the benefits single individuals and childless couples below the age of 30 were entitled to. With the reform, their monthly benefits increased by 88 % for singles and by 145 % for childless couples. Nonparametric analysis shows that the only transition rates which were affected, at least temporarily, by the reform were the rates of exit from the welfare state. The estimation of a flexible duration model with time-varying covariates such as the welfare benefits, the minimum wage rate and the local unemployment rate, shows that the reform increased the expected duration on welfare from 2 to 4.5 months for eligible recipients.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 451-463

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1999_50n3_0451
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