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Investissement et profitabilité. Un modèle néo-classique et son estimation sur données de branches industrielles françaises

  • Fabrice Paretti
  • François Legendre

[fre] La formation de capital fixe, en France, a-t-elle été suffisamment flexible ? D'une part, l'atonie (relative) de l'investissement depuis 1970 nous conduit à relativiser la pertinence du modèle traditionnel d'accélérateur. D'autre part, l'hypo­thèse de coûts d'ajustement a permis de renouveler assez profondément la théorie néo-classique en faisant intervenir la profitabilité, la différence entre la ren­tabilité effective du capital et son coût de financement, comme paramètre dans la décision d'investissement. Nous proposons une illustration empirique à partir de données annuelles de branches industrielles françaises en nous limitant à l'esti­mation de la relation d'Euler par une méthode appropriée (la méthode des moments généralisée qui permet de ne pas complètement spécifier le mode de formation des anticipations). Les résultats obtenus, pour 11 branches sur 18, ne conduisent pas à rejeter le modèle proposé. [eng] Has investment in France been flexible enough ? On one hand, the somewhat soft investment since 1970 induces us to re-evaluate the relevance of the traditionnal accelerator mechanism. On the other hand, the adjustment cost hypothesis, applied to production decision modeling, has led to a new look at the neo-classical theory. This outlook has in fact brought up profitability (the diffe­rence between capital effective return and the cost to finance it) which plays an important factor in the decision of investment. First of all, estimable specification comes up. Then we suggest empirical illustration concerning yearly data of french manufacturing. However, we simply estimate the Euler relationship using a suita­ble method (the generalized moment method which provides us the means not to specify the exact formation of expectations). The results obtained, for 11 sectors over 18, do not lead us to reject this model.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 48 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 107-122

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1997_48n1_0107
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