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Consommation, épargne et accumulation dans la transition démographique

  • Frédéric Docquier
  • Francis Bismans

[fre] En utilisant deux modèles, l'un de croissance optimale, l'autre à générations imbriquées, on s'efforce d'étudier l'impact sur la consommation moyenne, l'épar­gne et, indirectement, sur les inégalités entre générations du vieillissement démo­graphique. Il résulte de l'exemple français que la trajectoire optimale face aux changements de population requiert une élévation du taux d'épargne d'ici 2050. Or, à politique inchangée, c'est plutôt l'inverse qu'on devrait observer. En consé­quence, on envisage deux mesures destinées à encourager l'épargne : la réduc­tion des prestations de retraite et la constitution d'un fonds public de capitalisation. [eng] In this paper, we develop two simulation models -an optimal growth model and an overlapping generations model- to investigate the long-run effect of ageing on per capital consumption, national saving and intergenerational welfare inequali­ties. Using trench demographic data, it is first shown that the optimal intertemporal path asks for an increase in the saving rate up to 2050. Nevertheless, the opposite result should be observed under an unchanged fiscal context. Two alternative saving-promoting policies are thus examined : a decrease in retirement benefits and the accumulation of a public fund.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): n° 47 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 667-676

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_p1996_47n3_0667
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