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Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia

  • Se-Eun Jeong
  • Jacques Mazier

The real exchange rates of ceecs have been appreciating for the last decade, especially when measured by consumer prices. We argue that the size of this appreciation is linked to the exchange rate regime, the pegged currencies being more prone to this phenomenon in the long run. We also show that this appreciation is not necessarily linked to overvaluation. First, it is largely reduced when using a proxy of tradable prices as deflator, according to the ¿Balassa-Samuelson effect¿. Second, we use a large sample of emerging countries to calculate ¿normal¿ levels of real exchange rates taking into account the ¿Balassa effect¿ and show that ceecs do not suffer from systematic overvaluation according to this norm. We then calculate Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, using a model of the foreign trade of five ceecs (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Estonia) and their main partners based on nigem. We show that these ceec currencies only have very small misalignment. This is due to the fact that the response of their foreign trade to small changes in the exchange rate is especially high, because of the high degree of openness and large export price elasticities.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 54 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 0-0

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_545_0001
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  1. Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064, March.
  2. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
  3. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, December.
  4. Simon Wren-Lewis & Rebecca Driver, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa54, 03.
  5. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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