IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Tobit Regression Model of Football Performance Variables for a Profitable Fixed Odds Betting Strategy


  • Paul White
  • Pat Sessford

    (University of Exeter)


An analysis of in-match football team performances in European top flight matches has been undertaken to develop profitable betting strategies in the fixed odds market. Three profitable betting strategies for betting on the home win are derived using a novel application of the Tobit regression model. Net profits of in excess of 15% are obtained in unseen out-of-sample testing. The generation of these profits may indicate that general team performance information may not be correctly factored into the fixed odds offered by bookmakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul White & Pat Sessford, 2010. "A Tobit Regression Model of Football Performance Variables for a Profitable Fixed Odds Betting Strategy," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:4:y:2010:i:3:p:1-12

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Fixed odds betting rules; home win; bookmakers’ probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:4:y:2010:i:3:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.