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Housing Cycles and Efficiency

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  • Meen, Geoffrey

Abstract

This paper has four objectives. First, a small model of the UK housing market is constructed, including equations for house prices, housing starts, construction costs and interest rates. The model is used in an analysis of housing market cycles, employing techniques developed for the analysis of general business cycles. Second, the model is used to consider housing market efficiency. Third, the model is extended to examine the relationship between house prices and property transactions. Finally, the role of monetary policy in the generation of housing cycles and stability is discussed. Copyright 2000 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:47:y:2000:i:2:p:114-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Williams, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    3. Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
    4. Geoffrey Meen, 2001. "The Economic Role of New Housing," ERES eres2001_231, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Diana Kasparova, Michael White, 2001. "The Responsiveness Of House Prices To Macroeconomic Forces: A Cross-Countr Y Comparison," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 385-416, December.
    6. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 3604, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Lerbs, Oliver W., 2012. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," CAWM Discussion Papers 57, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    8. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353.
    9. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    10. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    11. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    12. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Cross Country Residential Investment Rates and the Implications for the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    14. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Oliver Lerbs, "undated". "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," Working Papers 201283, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    16. Luci Ellis & Laura Berger-Thomson, 2004. "Housing Construction Cycles and Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 335, Econometric Society.
    17. Gürtler, Marc & Rehan, Christine, 2008. "Preisbildende Faktoren von privaten Immobilien," Working Papers IF28V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    18. Luci Ellis & Mariano Kulish & Stephanie Wallace, 2012. "Property Market Cycles as Paths to Financial Distress," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:993860 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    21. repec:esr:qecsas:2017:winter:mcquinn is not listed on IDEAS
    22. McQuinn, Kieran & Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid, 2015. "Assessing the Sustainable Nature of Housing-Related Taxation Receipts: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP503, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    23. Paschalis Arvanitidis, 2006. "Property Market Purpose Efficiency: An Exploratory Analysis From an Institutional Economics Perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa06p567, European Regional Science Association.

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