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A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Gocke, Matthias

Abstract

A model leading to employment hysteresis due to sunk hiring- and firing-costs is proposed. A potential mechanism based on a band of inaction that could account for a 'weaker' relationship between employment and its determinants is augmented by exchange rate uncertainty. As a result of option value effects the band of inaction is widened. Thus, the hysteresis effects are strongly amplified by exchange rate uncertainty (as numerical examples demonstrate). Non-linearities in the employment-relation are implied, i.e. 'spurts' in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response to a reversal of the exchange rate. Copyright 1999 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Gocke, Matthias, 1999. "A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 260-286, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:46:y:1999:i:3:p:260-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Rainer & Eppendorfer, Carsten & Neimke, Markus, 2002. "Deepening European Financial Integration: Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evaluation of Growth and Employment Benefits," MPRA Paper 5272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Labour Market Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20202, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    3. Matthias Göcke & Jolita Matulaityte, 2015. "Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201536, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Werner, Laura, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 468, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    7. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June.
    8. Matthias Göcke & Ansgar Belke, 1999. "Micro and Macro Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 722, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2003. "Monetary Policy (In-) Effectiveness under Uncertainty - Some Normative Implications for European Monetary Policy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 223/2003, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    10. Matthias Göcke, 2018. "Economic Hysteresis with Multiple Inputs– a Simplified Treatment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201801, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Gocke, Matthias & Hebler, Martin, 2005. "Institutional uncertainty and European Social Union: Impacts on job creation and destruction in the CEECs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 345-354, April.
    12. Paulo Mota & José Varejão & Paulo Vasconcelos, 2015. "A hysteresis model-based indicator for employment adjustment rigidity," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 547-569, August.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 1999. "Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: The impact of external shocks on labour markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 1-47, March.
    14. Belke, Ansgar & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Paul, Stephan & Schmidt, Christoph M. (ed.), 2009. "Wirtschaftspolitik im Zeichen europäischer Integration: Festschrift für Wim Kösters anlässlich seines 65. Geburtstages," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 83, number 83, April.
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0468 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Matthias Göcke, 2009. "Firing versus Continuing Employment if an Economic Setback is Expected," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200918, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Henry Aray, 2015. "Hysteresis and import penetration with decreasing sunk entry costs," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 175-188, June.
    18. Beckmann, Rainer & Eppendorfer, Carsten & Neimke, Markus, 2002. "Financial integration within the European Union: Towards a single market for insurance," MPRA Paper 5280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Johan F.M.Swinnen & Thijs Vandemoortele, 2011. "On Butterflies and Frankenstein: A Dynamic Theory of Regulation," LICOS Discussion Papers 27611, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.

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